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However, the possibilities that it could mutate into a human-to-human transmissible form are high enough to take very serious precautionary measures (many believe we are at the 50-50 point). Recently in Sumatra island in Indonesia, the World Health Organization reported that the Avian Flu mutated into a human-to-human strain that infected eight family members and killed seven see links: http://www.washtimes.com/world/20060624-125410-3025r.htm http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/23/AR2006062300248.html?nav=rss_world . The organization feels there is no cause for alarm, but is very concerned because now there is proof that it can mutate in this way and in an extremely virulent form with a 98% mortality rate. Currently, humans have no immunity to H5N1. If a form such as this develops and begins to infect large numbers of people, it would spread across the globe just as the Spanish flu (another avian flu virus) did in 1918, killing 675,000 Americans and approx. 50-100 million people worldwide. With the numbers adjusted for the increase in world population, a similar pandemic would kill upwards of 2-3 million Americans over a period of 9-15 months and quite possibly, 150-300 million worldwide. As frightening as it may seem, it could even be much worse than this. In poor countries like Africa, Southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, there are no buffers to prevent the spread. It could sweep across these countries like a biological brush fire, leaving a trail of death and suffering in its wake on a scale not seen since the "Black Death" swept through Europe in the 14th century see: http://www.eyewitnesstohistory.com/plague.htm The H5N1 Avian flu strain has a 50-100% mortality rate. See: http://www.medicinenet.com/bird_flu/article.htm this means that in a hypothetical situation where 100 people are infected, between 50 & 100% of them will die upon contracting the virus. Even a mild pandemic would increase the annual death for influenza by a factor of 10 from approx. 36,000 see link: http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r030107.htm to about 300,000.
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